THE WISH IS FATHER TO THE THOUGHT When you read the opinion of any man, whether it be a newspaper writer, the president of some big bank or the head of some large corporation, consider and give due weight to the fact that when he talks optimistic, he has something to sell to the public and is not likely to talk in a way to hurt his own business. Joe DiNapoli - Trading with DiNapoli levels Many years ago there was a Mr. B. in Wall Street who gathered a lot of information and sometimes wrote for the newspapers. He was well known and often visited different brokerage offices, and traders eagerly sought his opinion. They would say "Mr. B., what do you think of Union Pacific?" He would reply: "I think it is going up; anyway, I hope it does, for I am long of it." Now, that was his reason for thinking the stock would go up. He owned some of it, and his hope and wish was that it would advance. He certainly did not feel like telling the other fellow that he believed it was going down. If he did, he might start a selling wave that would hurt his own interest. OVER-OPTIMISM If you have read the newspapers carefully over a long period of years, or if you will go back and look up records, you will find that prominent business men who are heads of large corporations, are nearly always optimistic. Panics come, and depressions lasting from one to five years, with stocks declining anywhere from 25 to over 100 points, yet these men are always optimistic. Do you believe that they are so far wrong in their judgment that they can not see the trend at the time? Certainly not. They have goods to sell. They must conceal it from the public and talk for their own interests. I can not recall the time when the officials of the U. S. Steel Corporation were ever pessimistic. Yet, the stock has passed its dividend several times and suffered severe depressions, which as far as the records are concerned, were all unforeseen by the directors. It is a good thing to be an optimist using Dinapoli Levels, but whether it be in business or the stock market, it is the truth that helps and protects, and not false hopes and unwarranted optimism. Hopes will not keep the margin call away from you in a panic. The only way to avoid these uncomfortable condi tions is to go with the trend of the market and not against it. The newspapers, as a rule, are against printing anything of a pessimistic nature Direction Of The Market. In 1920 and 1921 when I issued my forecast on general business conditions, I had based it on the truth and scientific facts. It showed that very depressing conditions were coming in 1920 and 1921, but most of the newspapers refused to publish my predictions Trend Analysis, Displaced Moving Averages. Yet they were all fulfilled with remarkable accuracy. Forewarned is forearmed! It is certainly better to tell the public before depressing conditions start that they are coming and let them prepare for them, than to wait until the crisis is on and then tell them — as the newspapers do — what caused all the trouble. Every effect is the result of a cause, and the cause must exist long before the effect can be seen by the general public. The proper thing to do is to determine the cause and act on it, for if you wait until you can see the effect, loss in the stock market is certain. stock market quote ~ money magazine |